# Tech Sequence Holdings — Financial Model

The structured financial model behind the [aggressive 8-year growth plan](aggressive-8-year-growth-plan.md). Per-entity revenue projections, capital sources and uses, cap-table evolution, returns scenarios, and sensitivity analysis. All numbers in USD unless noted.

This document is the canonical narrative + assumption record. For interactive stress-testing, a companion `financial-model.xlsx` is available on request — that's the right tool for what-if analysis. This markdown is the right tool for understanding the *why* behind every number.

---

## Top-line summary

| Metric | Y1 | Y3 | Y5 | Y8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating entities | 4 | 20 | 31 | 44+ |
| Portfolio ARR (consolidated) | $1.5–2.5M | $25–40M | $80–130M | **$200–350M** |
| Cumulative capital deployed | $5–7M | $77–90M | $250–275M | $800M–$1.1B |
| TS Holdings parent net cash position | $1–2M | $5–12M | $30–60M | $200–500M (post liquidity events) |
| Founder personal capital cumulative | $1.7M | $5–8M | $8–12M | $10–15M |
| Portfolio enterprise value (5–10× revenue blended) | $5–15M | $100–250M | $500M–$1.2B | **$2B–$4B** |
| TS Holdings parent share of portfolio EV (~50% blended) | $3–8M | $50–125M | $250–600M | **$1B–$2B** |

**The compounding story:** founder personal capital is concentrated Y1–Y3 ($10–15M total). From Y4 onward, recycled exit capital + operating cash from cash-generative entities (TS Tech Consulting, TS Managed Services, TS Pay, TS People mature) carry the deployment. **TS Holdings is built to compound, not to be funded continuously by founder.**

---

## Per-entity revenue trajectory

All entities show ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) in USD millions. **Yr-Q indicates launch quarter.** Conservative case; sensitivity scenarios at end of document model 30/45/60% failure rates.

### TS Services group (cash engine)

| Entity | Launch | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | Y7 | Y8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **TS Technology Consulting** | Y1-Q1 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 14.0 | 22.0 | 35.0 | 55.0 | 80.0 |
| **TS Managed Services** | Y1-Q4 (sep.) | (in TC) | 0.8 | 2.5 | 6.0 | 11.0 | 18.0 | 28.0 | 42.0 |

**Assumptions:**
- Services pricing: $80–250/hour senior; $40–100/hour mid-level (Vietnamese consulting market 2026 benchmark)
- Consultant utilization 65–75% target
- TS Tech Consulting headcount: 15 (Y1) → 80 (Y3) → 200 (Y5) → 450 (Y8)
- Cash-flow positive Y1 Q3 (TS Tech Consulting standalone); group cash-positive Y2 (with TS Managed)
- TS Services group prepares Vietnamese HOSE/HNX IPO Y6 (Vietnamese JSC sub-holding incorporated for flip-back)
- 25% blended EBITDA margin at maturity (Vietnamese services benchmark)

### TS Ventures — Vertical SaaS

| Entity | Launch | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | Y7 | Y8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **TS People** (HRIS + marketplace + recruiting) | Y1-Q2 | 0.05 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 16.0 | 22.0 | 28.0 |
| **Mira** (F&B chains ERP) | Y1-Q3 | 0.03 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 3.5 | 7.0 | 12.0 | 17.0 | 22.0 |
| **TS Health** | Y2-Q3 | — | 0.15 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 5.5 | 10.0 | 15.0 | 20.0 |
| **TS Education** | Y2-Q3 | — | 0.10 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 14.0 |
| **TS Notary** | Y3-Q2 | — | — | 0.30 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 7.5 | 11.0 | 15.0 |
| **WarehouseOS** | Y3-Q3 | — | — | 0.10 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 6.5 | 9.0 |
| **Unit Desk** | Y3-Q3 | — | — | 0.08 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 8.0 |

**Assumptions:**
- Vietnamese mid-market SaaS pricing: $200–2,000/month per customer
- TS People three-product attach rate ≥40% by Y2 end
- Mira: anchor F&B chain Y1 + design partners → ~100 chains by Y4, ~300 by Y8
- TS Health: ~50 hospital/clinic customers Y4, ~150 by Y8
- TS Education: ~30 institutional customers Y4, ~100 by Y8 + corporate L&D + TS Founder Academy revenue
- TS Notary: ~50 private notary offices Y4, ~300 by Y8 + bank-mortgage integration revenue
- SaaS unit economics: 5:1 LTV:CAC by Y3 maturity; 90%+ gross margin
- 30% blended ARR growth annually post Year 3 (Vietnamese SaaS benchmark)

### TS Ventures — Marketplace, Data & AI, Deep Tech

| Entity | Launch | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | Y7 | Y8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **TS Land** (PropTech marketplace) | Y2-Q2 | — | 0.2 | 1.5 | 4.5 | 10.0 | 18.0 | 28.0 | 40.0 |
| **Signet** (digitalization platform) | Y3-Q1 | — | — | 0.5 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 16.0 |
| **TS Insight** (merged Gather AI + Beacon) | Y3-Q1 | — | — | 0.3 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 11.0 |
| **Vitrine** (Tier 1, MoCST) | Y3-Q1 | — | — | 0.4 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 11.0 |
| **Blue Dot** (Tier 1, MoNRE) | Y2-Q4 | — | 0.2 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 10.0 | 12.5 |
| **Argus** (Tier 1, MoPS) | Y4-Q2 | — | — | — | 0.5 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 15.0 | 22.0 |
| **Hogcare** (AgriTech) | Y4-Q1 | — | — | — | 0.4 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 10.0 |
| **TS Field** (Tier 1, drone + IoT + robotics) | Y4-Q2 | — | — | — | 2.0 | 8.0 | 16.0 | 25.0 | 35.0 |

**Assumptions:**
- TS Land: real-estate commission take rates 0.5–2% + agent SaaS $50–500/agent/month; ~5,000 agents on platform by Y5, ~20,000 by Y8
- Tier-1 entities: longer gov procurement cycles (12–18 months); higher contract values ($100K–$2M typical); ~5–10 ministry/provincial contracts by Y4
- TS Field: M&A wedge brings ~$2M ARR Day 1 (acquired drone operator); rapid IoT + applied-robotics layering grows ARR fast
- Argus: cyber-AI demand acceleration; major MoPS contract drives Y6–Y8 ramp

### TS Infrastructure + TS Capital & FS

| Entity | Launch | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | Y7 | Y8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **TS Intel** (commercial AI) | Y2-Q4 spin-out | — | 0.2 | 1.5 | 5.0 | 12.0 | 22.0 | 35.0 | 50.0 |
| **TS National AI** (Tier 1, gov AI) | Y3-Q4 | — | — | 0.3 | 1.5 | 5.0 | 11.0 | 18.0 | 28.0 |
| **TS Data Services Commercial** | Y3-Q2 | — | — | 0.8 | 3.5 | 9.0 | 18.0 | 30.0 | 45.0 |
| **TS Data Services Gov-Cloud** | Y4-Q2 (Tier 1) | — | — | — | 1.2 | 4.5 | 10.0 | 17.0 | 25.0 |
| **TS Block / TS Pay** | Y2-Q2 | — | 0.3 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 14.0 | 25.0 | 40.0 | 55.0 |
| **TS Lending** (Y4 spin-out from TS Block) | Y4-Q3 | — | — | — | 0.3 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 12.0 | 20.0 |
| **TS Wealth** (Y6 spin-out from TS Block) | Y6-Q3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.4 | 2.5 | 7.0 |
| **TS Insurance** (Y8 spin-out from TS Block) | Y8-Q3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.5 |
| **TS Investment Services** (Y6 launch) | Y6-Q1 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.5 | 1.5 | 3.0 |

**Assumptions:**
- TS Intel: international AI VC fundable; foundation-model + vertical-AI services; royalty stream from TS National AI from Y3 Q4+ (~$200K–$2M/year scaling)
- TS National AI: gov procurement-paced; ministry framework agreements anchor revenue
- TS Pay (within TS Block): transaction fee revenue 0.3–1.2% on volume; $5B+ transaction volume by Y4; $30B+ by Y8
- TS Lending: Y4 launch; expansion-stage Y5–Y8 with strategic capital
- TS Wealth + TS Insurance: SBV/SSC licensing time lag; slower ramp than TS Pay

### TS Culture & Creative

| Entity | Launch | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | Y7 | Y8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **TS Media & Creative** | Y2-Q2 | — | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 10.0 |
| **Saigon Volume** | Y5-Q2 | — | — | — | — | 1.5 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 10.0 |
| **TS Live** | Y5-Q3 | — | — | — | — | 0.8 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 7.0 |

**Assumptions:**
- TS Media & Creative: agency revenue project-based + retainer; cash-generative within 18 months; lower absolute ARR but high-margin
- Saigon Volume: facility utilization-driven; high fixed costs; revenue scales with bookings
- TS Live: events + sponsorship revenue

### Cross-group / structural + M&A + spin-outs

| Entity | Launch | Y8 ARR estimate |
|---|---|---|
| **TS Realty** (Y7 asset vehicle) | Y7-Q1 | — (asset returns, not ARR) |
| **TS Foundation** | Y6 | — (philanthropic; not revenue) |
| **TS Indonesia sub-holding** (2 acquired entities) | Y5 | $25M combined |
| **TS Thailand sub-holding** (2 acquired entities) | Y7 | $15M combined |
| **TS Philippines sub-holding** (1 acquired entity) | Y8 | $5M |
| **TS Brand & IP Holdings** (royalty revenue) | Y1 | $0.03 → $10M by Y8 (1–4% royalty on portfolio revenue) |
| **TS Medical AI** (Y5 spin-out) | Y5 | $8M by Y8 |
| **TS Agri AI** (Y7 spin-out) | Y7 | $4M by Y8 |
| **TS Executive Search** (Y8 spin-out) | Y8 | $1M by Y8 |
| **General M&A acquisitions** (~9 over Y3–Y8) | various | $50–100M combined by Y8 |

### Portfolio total ARR by year (consolidated)

| Year | Portfolio ARR (conservative) | Portfolio ARR (base case) | Portfolio ARR (optimistic) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | $1.5M | $2.0M | $2.5M |
| Y2 | $7M | $9M | $11M |
| Y3 | $22M | $28M | $35M |
| Y4 | $55M | $70M | $90M |
| Y5 | $110M | $140M | $175M |
| Y6 | $180M | $230M | $290M |
| Y7 | $250M | $320M | $410M |
| Y8 | **$330M** | **$430M** | **$560M** |

**Base case Y8 ARR breakdown by group:**
- TS Services group: $122M (TS Tech Consulting $80M + TS Managed $42M)
- TS Ventures Vertical SaaS: $116M (TS People $28M + Mira $22M + TS Health $20M + TS Education $14M + TS Notary $15M + WarehouseOS $9M + Unit Desk $8M)
- TS Ventures Marketplace/Data/Deep Tech: $157M (TS Land $40M + Signet $16M + TS Insight $11M + Vitrine $11M + Blue Dot $12.5M + Argus $22M + Hogcare $10M + TS Field $35M)
- TS Infrastructure: $120M (TS Intel $50M + TS National AI $28M + TSDS Commercial $45M + TSDS Gov-Cloud $25M)
- TS Capital & FS: $85.5M (TS Block/Pay $55M + TS Lending $20M + TS Wealth $7M + TS Insurance $0.5M + TS Investment Services $3M)
- TS Culture & Creative: $27M
- Country sub-holdings: $45M
- Spin-outs Y5–Y8: $13M
- M&A acquisitions: ~$75M (mid)
- TS Brand & IP royalty revenue: $10M (counted separately; flows up to parent)

**Total Y8 ~$770M ARR — base case rounded to $430M after applying 45% portfolio-level failure-rate haircut** (some entities fail outright; some stall at sub-scale; M&A integration shortfalls).

---

## Capital plan — sources and uses

### Cumulative capital deployed (Y1 → Y8)

| Year | This year ($M) | Cumulative ($M) |
|---|---|---|
| Y1 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Y2 | 25 | 30–32 |
| Y3 | 52–55 | 82–87 |
| Y4 | 75 | 157–162 |
| Y5 | 100 | 257–262 |
| Y6 | 150 | 407–412 |
| Y7 | 200 | 607–612 |
| Y8 | 200+ | **800–1,100** |

### Sources of capital (cumulative through Y8)

| Source | Range ($M) | Timing |
|---|---|---|
| Founder personal capital | 10–15 | Y1–Y3 heavy; minor injections Y4+ as contingency reserve |
| External entity-level rounds (seed → Series A) | 250–350 | Continuous Y2+; ~$30–60M/year peak |
| Strategic anchor capital (Vietnamese bank for TS Block, real-estate developer for TS Land, Viettel for Tier-1 cluster — TS Field + TS National AI + TS Data Services Gov-Cloud, telecoms for TS Data Services, SCIC for Blue Dot, hospital network for TS Health) | 150–250 | Major chunks Y2–Y5 |
| Group-level raises | 150–300 | TS Services HOSE/HNX IPO Y6 ($50–100M); TS Block strategic Y7 ($100–200M); follow-on Y8+ |
| Recycled exit capital | 200–500 | Y4 onward; $50–100M/year Y6+ |
| Operating cash upstreamed | 100–200 | Y3+; primary Y5+ from TS Services + TS Pay + TS People + mature entities |
| **Total cumulative deployment** | **800–1,100** | |

### Uses of capital (cumulative through Y8)

| Use | Range ($M) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Greenfield entity launches (~22 entities) | 250–350 | $5–20M per entity typical |
| M&A acquisitions (11 deals over Y3–Y8) | 150–250 | $5–40M per deal |
| Tier-1 entity capital (incremental — chartered capital, sovereign-AI infra, Vietnamese-majority structuring) | 40–80 | 6 Tier-1 entities × $5–15M |
| Working capital + customer-acquisition costs | 80–150 | Across portfolio |
| Shared Services + governance overhead | 30–60 | Y1: $400–600K → Y8: $10–18M/year |
| Operator-CEO recruiting (CIR + search + brand) | 8 | Per operator-ceo-recruiting.md cumulative budget |
| International expansion (TS Indonesia/Thailand/Philippines sub-holdings, capital injections) | 60–120 | M&A + structural |
| Treasury reserve at TS Holdings parent | 100–200 | Maintains 12-month runway buffer for opportunistic M&A |
| Contingency / non-projected | 50–100 | Standard reserve for aggressive plan |
| **Total** | **800–1,100** | |

### Annual capital sources detail

| Year | Founder | External entity rounds | Strategic anchor | Group-level | Recycled | Op cash | Annual total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | 1.7 | 2.5 | — | — | — | — | 4.2 |
| Y2 | 2.0 | 15 | 8 | — | — | — | 25 |
| Y3 | 2.5 | 25 | 15 | — | — | 5 | 47.5 |
| Y4 | 2.0 | 30 | 20 | — | 10 | 13 | 75 |
| Y5 | 2.0 | 35 | 30 | — | 18 | 15 | 100 |
| Y6 | 1.5 | 45 | 35 | 75 (TS Services IPO) | 35 | 25 | 216.5 (above $150M projection due to IPO Y6) |
| Y7 | 1.5 | 50 | 30 | 100 (TS Block strategic) | 50 | 35 | 266.5 |
| Y8 | 1.0 | 60 | 25 | 50 | 80 | 50 | 266.0 |
| **Cumulative** | **14.2** | **262.5** | **163** | **225** | **193** | **143** | **~1,000** |

Total ~$1B cumulative is the base case. Range $800M–$1.1B reflects sensitivity.

---

## Cap table evolution — key entities

### TS Technology Consulting (services entity, standard model)

| Round | TS Holdings | Founding partner | ESOP | External |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 launch | 75% | 10% | 15% | 0% |
| Y3 (no external round; bootstraps) | 75% | 10% | 15% | 0% |
| Y5 (TS Services group restructuring for IPO) | TS Holdings 65% via TS Services sub-holding | 8% post-dilution | 17% (expanded) | 10% pre-IPO |
| Y6 (HOSE/HNX listing) | TS Holdings 40% (public float ~30%) | 6% | 18% | 6% strategic |

### TS People (founder-shareholder variant)

| Round | TS Holdings | Op-CEO + CTO + team | ESOP | External |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 launch (pre-seed $1.5M @ $5M post) | 50% | 25% (CEO 18%, CTO 5%, team 2%) | 15% | 10% (Vietnamese VC) |
| Y3 Series A ($6M @ $20M post; 30% dilution) | 35% | 17% | 13% | 35% (Series A + earlier) |
| Y5 Series B ($15M @ $60M post; 25% dilution) | 26% | 13% | 11% | 50% |
| Y8 maturity (potential strategic exit consideration) | 22% | 11% | 9% | 58% |

### TS Block (Vietnamese-majority + bank-partner anchor)

| Round | TS Holdings | Bank partner | Op-CEO + CTO + team | ESOP | Vietnamese VC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y2 launch | 42% | 20% (Techcombank or VPBank or MB Bank) | 15% | 10% | 13% |
| Y4 Series A ($30M @ $100M post; 30% dilution) | 29% | 14% | 11% | 7% | 39% |
| Y7 strategic raise ($150M @ $500M post; 30% dilution) | 20% | 25% (bank doubles down) | 8% | 5% | 42% |
| Y8 (post TS Lending + TS Wealth + TS Insurance spin-outs; TS Block group has 4 entities) | 20% in parent + 50%+ in each spin-out via spin-out cap tables | 25% in parent | varies | varies | varies |

### TS Field (Tier 1, Viettel co-investor, M&A wedge)

| Round | TS Holdings (via Public Sector) | Viettel | M&A retained leadership | Op-CEO + CTO | ESOP | External |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y4 launch (M&A close + Viettel investment) | 45% | 18% | 8% (acquired-CEO retention) | 19% | 10% | — |
| Y6 Series A ($15M @ $60M post; 25% dilution) | 34% | 14% | 6% | 14% | 7% | 25% |
| Y8 (international expansion via TS Indonesia + TS Thailand drone operations) | 30% | 14% (Viettel international engagement) | 4% | 12% | 6% | 34% |

### TS National AI (Tier 1, Viettel co-investor)

| Round | TS Holdings (via Public Sector) | Viettel | Op-CEO + CTO | ESOP | External |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y3 Q4 launch | 45% | 18% | 17% (CEO 12%, CTO 5%) | 15% | 5% |
| Y5 Series A (Viettel-led $10M @ $50M post; 20% dilution) | 36% | 28% (doubles down) | 14% | 12% | 10% |
| Y8 (potential strategic acquisition by Viettel) | 25–30% | 50–60% (eventual buyout) | 8% | 7% | — |

---

## Returns scenarios for investor types

### Entity-level seed investor (TS People example)

Y1 pre-seed: $1.25M into Series Seed at $5M post-money → 25% ownership initial.

After dilution through Series A (Y3), Series B (Y5), pre-IPO (Y7), and exit (Y8):

| Scenario | Exit valuation | Investor returns (cash) | IRR (8-year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| **Optimistic** (TS People surpasses base case; strategic sale Y6) | $300M | $25M from $1.25M (20×) | 50%+ |
| **Base case** (consolidation acquirer Y7, ARR $20M, 8× revenue) | $160M | $10M from $1.25M (8×) | 30%+ |
| **Conservative** (stalls at $8M ARR, strategic sale Y8) | $50M | $3M from $1.25M (2.5×) | 12% |
| **Failure** (TS People fails Y3–Y4) | $0 | $0 | -100% |

Across portfolio of similar pre-seed investments (15+ entity-level rounds), expected blended return: 30%+ IRR over 5–8 years, consistent with Vietnamese VC asset-class returns.

### Tier-1 strategic co-investor (Viettel — TS Field + TS National AI + other)

Cumulative Viettel investment across Tier-1 cluster Y2–Y6: $30–60M total. Returns include:

- Equity stakes in 4–6 Tier-1 entities (TS Field, TS National AI, TS Data Services Gov-Cloud, etc.)
- Strategic partnership benefits (co-sell, customer access, mutual referrals)
- Political-cover value (cluster co-investor relationship)

Y8 outcomes:
- Acquisition optionality: Viettel can acquire one or more Tier-1 entities at fair-market value
- Continued co-investment in TS-portfolio-led international expansion (Cambodia, Laos via Viettel international footprint)
- IPO participation if TS Public Sector Holdings cluster ever lists

Expected blended IRR for Viettel cluster investment: 25–40% IRR over 6–8 years; strategic value beyond pure financial return.

### Group-level investor (TS Services HOSE/HNX IPO Y6)

TS Services group expected pre-IPO valuation Y6: $400–800M (TS Tech Consulting + TS Managed Services at $35M + $18M combined ARR, ~10× revenue multiple Vietnamese services).

IPO mechanics:
- 25–30% public float
- Vietnamese institutional investors + retail participation
- TS Holdings parent retains 50%+ post-IPO

Investor IRR (3-year hold post-IPO): 15–25% expected (Vietnamese services-IPO benchmark; HOSE/HNX market dynamics)

### TS Holdings parent investor (founder + selective family-office)

Hypothetical scenario: family-office invests $5M at TS Holdings parent level Y2 at $30M post-money (16.7% ownership).

Y8 outcomes:
- Portfolio aggregate enterprise value: $2B–$4B (base + optimistic blend)
- TS Holdings parent share of portfolio EV: $1B–$2B (50% blended ownership)
- Family-office stake worth: $170M–$330M (from $5M → 35–65× return)
- IRR: 80–100%+ over 6 years (extraordinary case)

**Caveat:** TS Holdings parent shares are illiquid and dependent on portfolio compounding. Risk-adjusted IRR for selective family-office participation: 35–55% with high variance.

---

## Sensitivity analysis

### Portfolio-level failure rate scenarios

| Scenario | Failure rate | Y8 surviving entities at scale | Y8 portfolio ARR | Y8 portfolio EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| **Conservative** | 30% failure | 30+ entities | $330M | $2B |
| **Base case** | 45% failure | 25+ entities | $230M | $1.4B |
| **Aggressive (downside)** | 60% failure | 18+ entities | $130M | $800M |
| **Worst case** | 75% failure (severe macro / regulatory shock) | 11 entities | $80M | $400M |

The base case (45% failure rate) is consistent with Rocket-Internet-comparable pace and Vietnamese VC asset-class outcomes. Worst case requires multiple compounding shocks (Vietnamese tech-sector retrenchment + multiple regulatory pivots + M&A failures + CEO recruiting stall).

### Capital availability scenarios

| Scenario | Cumulative capital deployed Y8 | Y8 entity count | Adjustment |
|---|---|---|---|
| **Base** | $1B | 44 | per plan |
| **Capital-constrained** (Vietnamese VC market contracts 30%) | $600M | 30 | Slower Y3–Y4 pace; M&A reduced; spin-out timing pushed back |
| **Capital-abundant** (extraordinary investor demand) | $1.5B | 50+ | Accelerated international (TS Indonesia/Thailand/Philippines); additional Y6–Y8 M&A |

### Founder time scenarios

| Scenario | Founder availability | Plan adjustment |
|---|---|---|
| **Base** | 90%+ commitment through Y8 | Plan as documented |
| **Founder constrained Y2** (health, family, external commitments — e.g., 50% time Y3) | Group MDs accelerated to Y2 end; Senior CEO Recruiter expanded; founder time on top 3 entities only | Y3 launch slows to 5 entities instead of 9 |
| **Founder unavailable** (catastrophic) | Group MDs run portfolio; Chief of Staff coordinates; entity boards autonomous | Plan continues but new entity launches stop until founder returns or successor appointed |

### Vietnamese regulatory shock scenarios

| Scenario | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tier-1 entity regulatory issue (one entity investigated/sanctioned) | Medium (over 8 years) | Sub-holding firewall contains damage; portfolio non-Tier-1 entities unaffected | D17 firewall + government-customer-compliance.md operating disciplines |
| PDPD enforcement action against multiple entities | Low–Medium | $5–20M compliance + remediation cost | Centralized PDPD Lead in Shared Services; entity-level PDPD compliance audits |
| Decree 53 expansion (broader data localization) | Medium (Vietnamese regulatory direction) | $10–30M infrastructure cost across portfolio (TS Data Services capacity expansion) | TS Data Services Commercial + Gov-Cloud absorb most workloads |
| SBV restriction on foreign fintech ownership | Low (sector-specific) | TS Block ownership rebalancing; possible Vietnamese-majority adjustment | Already Vietnamese-majority per IPS license requirement; redundant |

### Operator-CEO recruiting stall

| Scenario | Hires achieved vs target | Plan impact |
|---|---|---|
| Plan-on-pace | 7/year peak | 44 entities by Y8 |
| 20% slip | 5–6/year peak | 36–38 entities by Y8; one Tier-1 entity slips to Y5 |
| 40% slip | 4/year peak | 28–30 entities by Y8; Tier-1 cluster delayed; international expansion deferred to Y6 |

---

## Top-level assumptions documented

### Revenue assumptions

1. **Vietnamese mid-market SaaS pricing benchmark**: $200–2,000/month per customer (2026); 5–10% inflation built in for Y3+ projections
2. **Vietnamese services consulting**: $80–250/hour senior, $40–100/hour mid-level
3. **Vietnamese B2B payment transaction fees**: 0.3–1.2% per transaction (TS Pay)
4. **Vietnamese real-estate marketplace take rates**: 0.5–2% commission + agent SaaS pricing
5. **Gov procurement contract values**: $100K–$2M per Tier-1 contract; longer cycles (12–18 months)
6. **Cross-portfolio internal pricing**: cost-plus 5% (favorable internal rate) for portfolio cross-purchases

### Growth assumptions

1. **SaaS growth rate (Vietnamese mid-market)**: 30% YoY base for healthy entities post-Y2
2. **Services growth rate**: 50–70% YoY for first 3 years; 25–35% YoY mature
3. **Marketplace network-effect compounding**: TS Land achieves take-rate of 1%+ on $30B+ Vietnamese real-estate transaction volume by Y8
4. **TS Brand & IP Holdings royalty rate**: 1–4% on portfolio revenue (blended 2.5%)

### Capital assumptions

1. **Pre-seed round size**: $1–1.5M at $5–6M post-money for Vietnamese SaaS Vertical entities
2. **Series Seed round size**: $1.5–3M at $8–15M post-money
3. **Series A round size**: $5–10M at $20–40M post-money; higher for TS Block / TS Land
4. **Strategic anchor stakes**: 15–20% per Tier-1 entity (Viettel cluster, bank partner for TS Block)
5. **TS Holdings parent retention**: 50% blended across portfolio (founder-shareholder variant for ~50% of entities reduces from default 75–85%)

### Cost assumptions

1. **Vietnamese tech engineer fully-loaded cost**: $40–70K/year (junior–senior); $80–150K/year (senior+ / leadership)
2. **Vietnamese sales/customer-success fully-loaded cost**: $30–80K/year
3. **Shared Services billing**: cost-plus 8% to operating entities (per D6)
4. **TS Brand & IP licensing**: 1–4% royalty (1% for trademarks, 2–4% for foundational IP)
5. **Big 4 audit costs**: $30–80K per entity per year (scales with revenue)

### Exit assumptions

1. **Vietnamese IPO (HOSE/HNX) revenue multiples**: 5–10× for SaaS, 3–6× for services, 4–8× for fintech
2. **Strategic sale revenue multiples**: 4–8× for SaaS, 2–4× for services, 5–10× for fintech
3. **Singapore SGX listing (TS Intel commercial AI)**: 8–15× revenue (premium for AI commercial)
4. **Capital recycling rate**: 50% of liquidity events deployed to treasury reserve, 30% to next-wave entity launches, 20% to strategic M&A (per D21)

### Risk-adjustment

1. **Portfolio-level failure rate**: 45% base case (Rocket-Internet-comparable pace; consistent with Vietnamese VC asset class)
2. **Tier-1 regulatory contagion**: contained by D17 firewall sub-holding; not modeled as portfolio-wide risk
3. **AI model contamination (D23 enforcement)**: contained by structural split between TS Intel and TS National AI; one-way data flow enforced
4. **CEO recruiting pipeline depth**: most likely single point of plan failure; $8M cumulative recruiting investment is the explicit mitigation

---

## Decision gates — financial triggers

Each gate in the [aggressive 8-year growth plan](aggressive-8-year-growth-plan.md) has explicit financial triggers:

### End of Y2 gate
- TS Tech Consulting + TS Managed Services + TS People + Mira combined ARR ≥ $7M? (base case is $9M)
- External entity-level capital raised ≥ $15M cumulative?
- TS Block bank-partner LOI signed?
- 5+ operator-CEOs successfully hired?

If 3 of 4 — proceed. If 2 of 4 — slow Y3 pace by one quarter.

### End of Y4 gate
- Portfolio ARR ≥ $55M? (base case $70M)
- First Series B sale provides ≥ $5M to TS Holdings treasury?
- First M&A integration 100-day review positive?
- CEO recruiting sustaining ≥ 5/year?

If 3 of 4 — continue aggressive plan. If 2 of 4 — pivot back to greenfield-heavy; M&A deferred to Y5.

### End of Y6 gate
- TS Services HOSE/HNX IPO completed (or alternative liquidity event of comparable size)?
- Cumulative recycled exit capital ≥ $50M?
- Founder span-of-attention sustainable (subjective, weekly portfolio-CEO review attended)?

If 2 of 3 — proceed to Y7+ expansion. If 1 of 3 — cap at ~30 entities; Y7–Y8 focus on consolidation.

---

## How to use this model

**For internal decision-making**: refer to per-entity revenue trajectory + cap table evolution + capital plan for incorporation gate (D18) decisions. Adjust assumptions and re-run.

**For investor conversations**: share with summary table + 1–2 specific entity revenue trajectories (e.g., TS People for a Vietnamese VC; TS National AI for a regional strategic). Discuss assumptions; invite investor input on benchmarks.

**For board reviews**: present quarterly P&L vs plan + cumulative capital vs plan + decision-gate status. Adjust trajectory if material variance.

**For sensitivity stress-testing**: use the xlsx companion (separate request). Toggle failure rate, capital availability, CEO recruiting pace, and observe Y8 portfolio EV outcome.

---

## What this model does NOT include (future additions)

- **Detailed monthly P&L per entity** (annual ARR projections only; monthly burn modeling is per-entity exercise during operator-CEO planning)
- **Working-capital forecasting** (AR/AP/inventory dynamics — entity-level)
- **FX hedging detail** (VND/USD risk management — handled at Shared Services treasury level)
- **Tax modeling** (Vietnamese CIT, Singapore corporate tax, withholding tax on dividends — covered in entity-level plans not aggregated here)
- **Specific timing of M&A deals** (deal-by-deal modeling done at LOI stage per D19)
- **Macro scenarios** (Vietnamese GDP shock, regional crisis, global AI bubble pop — addressed in [aggressive-8-year-growth-plan.md](aggressive-8-year-growth-plan.md) risk section but not financially modeled)

These can be added as the plan progresses and reality refines the assumptions.

---

## Related documents

- [aggressive-8-year-growth-plan.md](aggressive-8-year-growth-plan.md) — the narrative growth plan this model supports
- [year-1-deployment-plan.md](year-1-deployment-plan.md) — Y1 detailed quarterly plan
- [first-90-days.md](first-90-days.md) — Q1 weekly + Q2–Q4 monthly operational playbook
- [operator-ceo-recruiting.md](operator-ceo-recruiting.md) — $8M cumulative recruiting investment line-item
- [entity-plans/](entity-plans/) — per-entity revenue assumptions and capital plans
- [investor/](investor/) — bilingual investor materials referencing this model
- [../notes/decisions.md](../notes/decisions.md) — D1–D23 capital + governance decisions